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Remember this Price

Even if this report or forecast is accurate, what is the long term price for the same product…

Merrill Lynch last week forecast an average 2009 crude price of $90, but added that the price could drop to around $50 a barrel in the “unlikely event of a global recession.”

Airlines’ earnings forecast to rise in ’09, as oil prices drop – USATODAY.com.

In the same week, Fortune Magazine published an article talking about $500-a-barrel oil…

In 2005, when oil was $58 a barrel, he predicted it would be at or above $100 within a few years. Now he sees it climbing to $200, $300, or higher. “There really is no roof on oil prices at this point,” he says.

Recent drop in crude is an illusion – oil is going to $500. – Sep. 22, 2008

How will your life change with $50 or $500-a-barrel oil?

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From a leadership perspective, we are at a crossroads, as this author points out…

With the global capital markets on their knees, what we actually have now is a most unexpected final reprieve, one last chance to prepare for the enormous socio-economic change facing us all. Let us not squander this chance; we will not get another opportunity.

It is imperative that we do not drop the environmental hot potato now in order to address much more pressing economic concerns. The economy is nothing more than a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment that supports it.

Energy descent – On Line Opinion – 9/10/2008

Sobering thoughts for the weekend. , it’s Canadian Thanksgiving – let’s be grateful for what we have, and remember that leadership sometimes needs to make tough decisions, now is the time to prepare for an energy descent, a transition if you will. While I agree with the above author’s take on the relationship between the environment and economy, neither of these are as pressing as ensuring the world prepares for an energy descent, whether it is 5 or 50 years away.

Mike Thomas

Mike Thomas P.Eng. ENV SP, is the author of UrbanWorkbench.com and Director of Engineering at the City of Revelstoke in the Interior of British Columbia, Canada. If I post something here that you find helpful as you navigate the world of engineering, planning and building communities, that’s wonderful. But when push comes to shove: This is my personal blog. The views expressed on these pages are mine alone and not those of my employer.