As of March 4th 2009, Igor Panarin has revised his prediction – read more in this post – Revising the Russian Prediction
It is interesting to see how others outside of the western decadence view the situation in the USA, take for instance this Russian Professor…
For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument — that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. — very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.
In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions.
He claims that there is about a 50% chance of a collapse of State, claiming that…
mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
The WSJ article has hundreds of comments, some seeing the prediction as ludicrous, others worried that it is possible, still others resigned to the possibility that parts of the USA could go to countries as diverse as Japan, Russia, Canada and Mexico. Personally, I think this is possible, maybe not in the timeframe outlined above, but stranger things have happened.